Moldova’s parliamentary elections on September 28, 2025, represent a litmus test for European security.
In the presidential elections, held in Moldova on 20 October 2024, President Maia Sandu did not win the vote in Moldova itself. What saved Sandu, like the EU referendum, was the strong support for her among voters in the diaspora, highlighting the country’s deep divisions.
The upcoming parliamentary vote will determine whether Moldova continues its EU integration path under the pro-Western Party of Action and Solidarity (PAS) or shifts toward Russian influence, with profound implications for Ukraine’s war effort and NATO’s eastern flank.
The Patriotic Electoral Bloc represents the main pro-Russian challenge, led by former president Igor Dodon’s Socialist Party. Dodon accused Sandu and the current Moldovan government of “violating” Moldova’s neutral status and suggested that if he were in power he would shut off the country as any sort of conduit for the supply of weapons to Ukraine.
The Alternativa Bloc also seeks a less antagonist relationship with Russia while opposing the war in Ukraine and describing itself as pro-European. It includes Chișinău Mayor Ion Ceban, though Ceban was recently banned from Romania (and thus the Schengen Area) by Romania’s authorities, who cited “national security concerns”.
Russian Interference Campaign
Documents seen by Bloomberg show that tactics include, among others, recruitment of Moldovan voters abroad, organizing protests and a disinformation campaign for the 2025 elections.
EU Strategic Importance
The coming vote could also shape the European aspirations of Moldova and Ukraine. Both countries have been granted EU candidate status in recent years. The two bids are linked, and the EU will be reluctant to advance to one country without the other.
Moldova plays a vital role in supporting Ukraine. Even though it is among Europe’s poorest countries, it absorbed over 1.5 million Ukrainian refugees at one point during the war and is now home to more than 100,000. It also helps to ship grain to and from Ukraine through its Danube ports.
In 2025 alone, Brussels committed around 300 million EUR to Chișinău, equivalent to roughly 1.8 percent of Moldova’s GDP, demonstrating the bloc’s significant financial commitment to Moldova’s European path.
Consequences for Romania
A pro-Russian victory would create unprecedented security challenges for Romania. Should Moldova pivot towards Moscow, Ukraine’s support structure will be weakened, undermining the EU’s eastern resilience.
Russia already has around troops stationed in Transnistria, a pro-Russian breakaway region of Moldova on the Ukraine border. A pro-Russian government could facilitate expanded Russian military presence.
A Kremlin-friendly government in Moldova could potentially derail EU integration for both nations, while also creating a significant new security threat on Ukraine’s southwestern frontier.
Scenarios
Scenario 1: PAS Victory
- Continued EU integration
- Enhanced Romanian Moldovan security cooperation
- Maintained support for Ukraine
Scenario 2: Pro-Russian Coalition
- Dodon vowed to “restore normal relations” with Putin and Russia “despite what is happening in Ukraine”
- Potential end to Moldova’s EU accession process
- Major security threat requiring enhanced NATO presence in Romania
Scenario 3: Political Instability
- Should PAS fall short of an outright majority, political instability would likely follow. Potential coalition partners are considered either unreliable or politically compromised
- Prolonged uncertainty affecting regional security planning
Key Risk Factors
- Russian efforts to limit overseas voting could be decisive.
- Sandu lost in the presidential elections 30,000 votes within Moldova itself, particularly in rural areas frustrated by economic conditions.
- Moscow’s aim is not only to influence electoral outcomes but to undermine institutional trust, delay Moldova’s reforms and ultimately push it off the pathway to EU accession.
- For Romania, a pro-Russian victory would constitute (another) serious security threat. The outcome will determine whether Putin’s hybrid warfare model is working well or not.
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