In recent years, analysts have been increasingly concerned with the decline of liberal democracy, particularly as the rise of illiberal politicians worldwide has become more apparent. These leaders challenge the status quo of existing institutions by spreading disinformation and promoting extremist ideologies. Beyond advocating ultranationalism, many of these politicians have begun to question fundamental structures like the EU and NATO.
Over the past decade, far-right, ultranationalist, and extremist movements have gained significant traction across Europe. The Brexit referendum demonstrated their ability to manipulate public sentiment and alter the course of a nation. Subsequent crises—including the Covid-19 pandemic, the energy crisis, and the war in Ukraine—have further amplified their influence, with Russian propaganda playing a key role in fueling their narratives. What might have once remained isolated threats to democracy have now evolved into political forces.
In Romania, far-right ultranationalists emerged as a significant political movement in under four years. Their first major success came in 2020 when a far-right party secured seats in Parliament, an outcome overlooked by the opinion polls at the time. By 2024, an aggressive online campaign, largely unnoticed and allegedly supported by foreign interference, propelled an extremist candidate unexpectedly into the second round of the presidential election, posing a direct challenge to Romania’s pro-European stance. Due to concerns over electoral irregularities and foreign involvement, the Constitutional Court took the unprecedented step of annulling the election. Nonetheless, the extremist bloc secured approximately 30% of parliamentary seats in a country that had been free of extremist parties in its legislature for over two decades.
Romania is not the only country facing this growing pressure, as even the most established democracies in the EU, such as Germany and France, are experiencing a surge in extremism. However, Germany has so far managed to prevent extremists from gaining power. Despite the AfD securing 20% of the vote, it is likely to remain isolated in the Bundestag, as mainstream parties like the CDU, SPD, and other democratic forces work to contain its influence.
Romania has become a striking example of how a Russian-backed candidate can suddenly threaten democratic stability. This situation will likely serve as a case study for other well-established European democracies, particularly in the context of upcoming elections.
What to expect from the presidential elections in Romania?
The 2024 elections highlighted Romania’s growing extremist trend, yet pro-European parties successfully formed a coalition to isolate far right and ultranationalist forces. However, this fragile parliamentary majority must not only ensure political stability but also implement economic policies to reduce the state deficit and curb inflation.
In May, Romania will hold new presidential elections, a crucial moment that will shape the country’s trajectory for years to come, particularly in the current shifting international landscape.
A grand coalition consisting of the Social Democrats (PSD), Liberals (PNL), the Hungarian Minority Party (UDMR), and the group of national minorities is backing a common candidate, Crin Antonescu. A former leader of the Liberal Party, Antonescu, has been largely absent from political life over the past decade but promises he will win against any extremist leader.
Meanwhile, Bucharest’s independent mayor, Nicușor Dan, has also announced his candidacy and is aiming to secure a spot in the second round of voting. However, the Bucharest mayor has yet to receive the support of certain parties as he had hoped, at least for now.
On the far right, ultranationalist parties continue to support Călin Georgescu’s candidacy, though if his candidacy is rejected, parties like AUR are expected to put forward their own candidate.
Given the high stakes of this year’s presidential election, authorities have moved forward with an investigation into Georgescu`s campaign, who is now under indictment for instigation against the constitutional order, promoting war criminals, and supporting neo-fascist organizations. His legal troubles stem from the annulment of Romania’s 2024 presidential election, in which he won the first round following a propaganda-driven online campaign that violated electoral regulations. The Constitutional Court invalidated the results, citing foreign interference and breaches of national law, based on reports from national security agencies.
Georgescu has long been a controversial figure, known for his anti-Western rhetoric and pro-Kremlin stance, raising alarms within NATO and the EU. Investigations into his alleged ties to Russian-backed paramilitary groups suggest significant national security concerns played a role in the case against him.
As Romania prepares for these critical elections, their outcome will be pivotal in determining the country’s future and its European trajectory, especially given its complex geopolitical position and shared border with war-torn Ukraine.
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